Reference class forecasting
Anchor the estimate on the actual outcomes of a class of similar projects, then adjust.
- Use when
- Large or novel projects prone to optimism.
- Avoid when
- No data about similar projects.
- Source
- Kahneman & Tversky; Flyvbjerg
- Level
- B · established practice
For agents · MCP
explain_node({ "id": "t.reference_class" })